Why John Edwards’s Campaign is Screwed

First of all, I feel for the Edwards family. Cancer is a horrible disease, and watching a loved one go through it wrenches you inside out. I admire Elizabeth’s strength of character (or maybe it’s a distraction) for wanting her husband to soldier on with his campaign.

(This is the part where I’m going to hell. Please, if you don’t want to get singed by any stray lightning bolts, don’t stand that close to me.)

But arranging a press conference and appearing on 60 Minutes? Call me cynical (it’s all right, a lot of people have, and I’m sure that lot of people are, with some embarrassment, singing this same song) but however sincere they might think they’re being, to me it comes off as calculated as the Clinton’s interview early in the 2000 campaign when Bill said he was sorry he’d been bad and Hillary vowed to “stand by her man.”

The Clintons took a calculated risk. He could have bowed out, like Gary Hart, caught red-handed with a chickie-babe on his lap on the good ship “Monkey Business,” (Google it, kids) and made some lame excuse like he wanted to spend more time with his family. But what Bill and Hill did worked, because Bill Clinton, from the extrapolations by his political posse, had a strong enough campaign to weather the fallout. And he had that unusual rapport with the American populace that also got him reelected in a race where the turnout was among the lowest in recorded history. (Also, Bob Dole ran a pathetic campaign)

But John Edwards’s campaign simply isn’t that strong. It wasn’t that strong when he ran in 2004, when he came off as an inexperienced one-note Johnny, talking about his rise from poverty and the “two Americas” and such, and from what I’ve seen so far, he doesn’t seem to have changed. Yes, he talks about health care now, but who isn’t talking about health care? You have to in order to be in this race.

Yet in his 60 Minutes interview, he said that if you are planning to vote for him because his wife has cancer, then he doesn’t want your vote.

I’m having a hard time believing that. I’m not saying that he sat down with Elizabeth and said, “Hey! I know, I’m behind in the polls so let’s tell everyone about your cancer and we’ll get the sympathy vote and win!” But when life hands you lemons – especially if you’re a politician…especially a politician who wants to be President (which I think means something is wrong with you already) – you’d be foolish not to squeeze them dry. Or squirt a couple in your opponents’ eye. (And the deep dark very cynical part of me is wondering, with Hillary looking at a black man on her left and a guy whose wife has cancer on her right, if she’s thinking about urging Bill to pound back a bunch of Big Macs until he needs another bypass.)

Anyhow…the Edwards’s announcement could swing several ways for them. Either people will think: “Oh, how sad that his wife has cancer, and how strong they’re being, Edwards is my man!” Or, “if it were my wife I’d drop out of the campaign and spend time with her; what’s wrong with him?” Or “But if he gets to the White House, won’t he be distracted if her cancer gets worse?”

And with a campaign that’s pretty weak to begin with, I think when all the opinions are put together, it’s going to turn out to be a wash. Also, with the 2004 loss, he’s got that stink of “loser” on him that Americans have grown a disdain for in recent decades. In the past, a candidate could be on the losing ticket then run the next time and maybe win. But when was the last time that happened? Has anyone heard from Mike Dukakis or Lloyd Bentsen or Jack Kemp? And for all their rumblings, doubtful that Al Gore and John Kerry would hit the campaign trail again, except to stump for another guy with a donkey on his chest. Nader is the only one who keeps on going, and nobody but him really knows why. You have to go all the way back to Adlai Stevenson in 1952 and 1956 and Thomas Dewey in 1944 and 1948 to find a losing candidate who chose to run a second time. (which they both lost) Bob Dole also had the dubious honor of running as VP on the 1976 ticket then losing the top spot in 1998. Edwards also has that Senator curse on him, too (as I mentioned in an earlier blog) and doesn’t quite have that star quality to overcome it.

So with new reports coming out that the cancer is worse than originally reported in the press conference, I think the best thing the Edwards’s can do is hunker down and be together for the time that Elizabeth has left.

And good luck to them.